Did Marcos really win the elections?

Judging by the quick count and the reported extravagant celebration by the select elites, Bongbong Marcos (BBM) and Sara Duterte won the elections. However, with the trolls continually on the defensive mode while at the same time trying hard to pulverize Leni Robredo and the Kakampinks shows that even the supporters of the Reds are not convinced that they won already. Are they also questioning the election results?

The questions on BBM’s winning the presidential race are being highlighted by a number of groups – among them statisticians who saw a stable patterns of vote shares and vote margins. These include the alleged “68:32 Magic” where the share of BBM’s vote is pegged at 68% from 8:02 PM of May 9 to 1:32AM of May 10 while Leni’s vote-share is constant at 32% in the same period. (See Figure 1, The 68:32 Magic. Graphics not mine. CTTO.)

Figure 1. The 68:32 Magic. CTTO.

Another is the “47% Constant” where the difference of the votes between BBM and Leni is stable at 47% regardless of the time of the transmission and election returns transmitted. (See Figure 2.)

Figure 2. The 47% Constant. CTTO

In both cases, Statisticians and Data Analysts claim the rarity of the event – that is, the pattern is statistically possible but less probable. It could happen but could occur only in one over a billionth case. Not unless the machines are pre-programmed to spew such results.

The Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV), however, seems to dismiss insinuations of cheating. According to its PPCRV Chairperson Myla Villanueva, the election watchdog is mandated to verify only the ER and not the votes nor vote receipts and based on their reckoning, there is no evidence of fraud. She admitted, though, that there is a discrepancy of around 2% in the election returns (ERs) that the PPCRV volunteers encoded and that of Comelec’s quick count.  

Villanueva is the daughter of the infamous Mark Jimenez, the ally of Joseph Estrada who was unseated from Congress due to vote buying and jailed in the US for tax evasion and election financing. She is also the sister of more infamous art collector and former “Gucci Gang” member, Marcel Crespo.

In a sense, even if PPCRV will be re-encoding the same ERs spewed by an allegedly programmed vote counting machine, the results will be the same. That is why, as aptly stated by Atty. Romy Macalintal, “The evidence of the vote is in the ballot.” It is not in the ER which is already a processed vote.

Unfortunately, we will never know what the real votes are. Leni Robredo seemed to have resigned in going after the manual count which is expected because she has no resources for a recount. Note that in 2019, the cash bond donated by her supporters was not accepted by the Court. Hence, we can only assume that what is spewed in the machines are true as these are not being questioned. Or at least NOT YET because LENTE and NAMFREL are also doing their manual audits.

Could these questions and theories on the election of BBM be the reason why the Reds are still in the defensive and hostile mode? We do not know. What is clear is, to quote former NTC Commissioner Eliseo Rio Jr., “In a transparent and credible election, the results should speak for themselves. If one has to use a theory and several experts to explain the result of the election, then it is definitely NOT transparent and credible.”

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